Barack Obama recently announced his candidacy for next year’s presidential elections. He aims to raise $1bn for his campaign war chest, but what are his chances? Will the successes he has enjoyed be enough to secure his nomination by the democratic party, and who might he find himself running against? If you’re not quite up to speed on US politics, hopefully this article might help you survey the present political landscape of our neighbours across the pond.

Obama’s campaign launch video, and the associated website, is a fairly low-key affair which appears to act more as an appeal to his supporters to gear up for the impending re-election battle, rather than setting out any specific policies. One older gentleman featured in the video states that although he doesn’t agree with Obama on everything, he respects him and trusts him. Perhaps a slight nod to those among his ranks who acknowledge that mistakes will inevitably be made during the first-term of a presidency:

Obama’s election in 2008 was possibly one of the greatest branding exercises in recent political history. Even the staunchest Republican would have to admit that Obama’s team exploited the power of the Internet in ways never before contemplated and brought the wider public onside with clever campaign slogans and razor-sharp sound bites.

So can the same impressive manoeuvres be pulled off a second time? Has support for Obama waned since he became president, and might the novelty perhaps wear off once his actions in office are compared to his manifesto?

Well, as far as approval ratings go, Obama’s are fairly respectable although they’re actually far closer to those of George W. Bush than fellow democrat Bill Clinton. Both men enjoyed quite a bump following their inauguration (Bush’s was unusually high, but driven primarily by the 9/11 attacks) then fell into a steady (and in Dubyah’s case, rapid) decline.

[As an interesting side-note from my research: Bill Clinton truly is a statistical freak when it comes to opinion polls, his ratings soared almost continually during his second term from 1996 until he left office, although never exactly to stellar levels. This might explain the incredible closeness of the result in 2000. Additionally, if political statistics are your kind of thing, this graph is fascinating, I must have stared at it in amazement for a good 30 minutes.]

Now, whilst Obama isn’t exactly flying high, having lost the house of representatives following the mid-term elections in 2010 and facing substantial opposition to his health care reforms, the GOP on the other hand appears to be in a state of total disillusionment, which casts serious doubts over whether they have anyone who might be able to defeat Obama next year.

As far as I’m concerned (and this is my own personal view) Obama’s record in office is a mish-mash of laudable and ignoble actions. Criticism of Obama comes not only from the right, where anger around so-called ‘socialist’ health care reform is manifested in the formation of the populist Tea Party movement, but also from the political left.

When Jeremy Paxman interviewed Noam Chomsky recently for BBC Newsnight he asked how Obama measured up to George W Bush, to which Chomsky replied: in many ways, he’s worse. Paxman was slightly taken aback by this answer, but he really shouldn’t have been. If you look at US foreign policy, Chomsky is spot on in his analysis. Obama has sharply escalated the war in Afghanistan since taking office and has increased the use of drone air strikes, many of which have killed substantial numbers of civilians. There’s also the UN action against Libya, which Obama has now waded into with no clear exit strategy and as with any Middle-East conflict, there are accusations that energy security – rather than human rights – represents the most pressing concern of the administration.

All of this has taken place despite Obama’s campaign promise to withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan as soon as was feasibly possible. He also faces criticism from human rights groups for failing to deliver on his pledge to close down Guantanamo Bay and more recently for the inhumane treatment of PFC Bradley Manning, the army intelligence officer alleged to have leaked secret diplomatic cables to Wikileaks. The argument over the treatment of Manning recently lead to the resignation of State Department spokesman PJ Crowley, who objected to the administration’s stance on the issue.

However, Obama has also had some notable successes. The economy has improved, growth is slow but consistent, and the latest figures show unemployment at a two year low of 8.8%. John Mervin had this to say about the latest report from the US Department of Labor:

With this jobs report it does appear the economy has reached a real turning point. Not just a theoretical one, only of interest to economists either, but one that might actually lead to an improvement in the lives of millions. Because if about 200,000 new jobs are created each month then, slowly, America will get back to work.

The US may finally be pulling away from the worst economic collapse since the Great Depression. But it is only a turning point. There is a long way to go. More than 13 million Americans who want full-time work, haven’t found it yet.

John Mervin - New York business editor, BBC News

So let’s assume Obama gets the Democratic nomination, who will challenge Obama for the most powerful office in the world? Lets take a look at the possible contenders from ranks of the GOP faithful.

Tea-Party favourite Sarah Palin – whom I generally refer to these days as ‘the death of satire’ – has yet to announce any presidential bid, although she has been leaving a trail of breadcrumbs indicating that she might indeed seek the Republican nomination. This includes her much-publicised trip to Israel last month to bolster her non-existent foreign policy experience. However I believe many in the party will be apprehensive to put their weight behind her, fearful that her inclusion on the Republican ticket in 2008 was a major stumbling block to support for the older, but vastly more experienced John McCain.

Other possible contenders include Bill Clinton witch-hunt gang-leader and the former house speaker Newt Gingrich, Tea-Party candidate Michele Bachmann, and perhaps most depressing of all: businessman Donald Trump, who can currently be seen assuming Alan Sugar’s role in the US version of the Celebrity Apprentice. I think you’ll agree with me, nobody truly respected or credible has yet put themselves up for what will no doubt represent an immensely difficult fight against the incumbent.

We can also add to the PR problems of the Republicans further, with the current ideologically-driven pettiness of the GOP over the budget negotiations and the prospect of an imminent shut-down of the federal government if it continues to go unresolved, which as  Haze pointed out to me, might very well backfire on the Republicans. The GOP also, as a by-product of their superiority complex gained during the mid-term wins, has managed to re-energise much of the Democratic base following the austerity-related attack on the public sector in the state of Wisconsin, which I’ve blogged about previously.

If the economy continues to improve and unemployment continues to drop, this might go some way to proving Obama’s sturdy handling of the economic recovery, which will boost the Democrats chances even further. Which begs me to ask whether the top ranking Republicans might have simply decided to wait it out and regroup for an even bigger fight in 2016?

[Photo Credit: toptechwriter on Flickr]